03.2022 Life Guide
Master diversified investment tools -- futures
Oriental Securities Corporation / Planning Office
In recent years, Taiwan's futures market has become more and more popular. According to the statistics of Taiwan Futures Exchange, the trading volume in 2021 has exceeded 390 million (note), a record high. How to operate futures? Why can we double the principal quickly? Let's get to know each other!
In 2022, the global economy is still full of uncertainty, the global inflation problem is in the ascendant, and major countries have put forward interest rate raising plans. At the beginning of the year, the major global stock markets fell considerably, and it is difficult for Taiwan stocks to stay out of the matter. For investors who have not yet entered the market, it is not easy to choose the best target when the market changes; For investors who have held a considerable position, they are even more trembling and afraid of asset impairment. At this time, "futures" operation is a good investment choice.
Futures is a kind of derivative commodity. Investors can choose to link futures of different commodities according to their needs, such as index futures, stock futures, crude oil futures, etc. without investing a large amount of money, they only need to trade with a certain margin equal to the contract value. Taking the "Taiwan index period", which is currently the hottest trading period in Taiwan Futures Exchange, as an example, assuming that one mouthful of Taiwan index period is made (bought) at 18000 points, the contract value is equivalent to 3.6 million yuan (1 point = 200 yuan, 18000 points) × 200 yuan = 3.6 million yuan). If the one mouthful margin is 184000 yuan (Taiwan Futures Exchange will announce the latest margin from time to time according to the index position), its leverage ratio is nearly 20 times, which is much higher than that of current shares or credit trading.
For investors who are unwilling to hold stocks for a long time or consider it difficult to choose stocks, and intend to adopt "choose the market but not the stock", it is suggested to use the analysis methods such as moving average, KD or linear to judge the entry and exit timing of the Taiwan index period. Taking the above 18500 point Taiwan index period as an example, if one more Taiwan index is made, when the index rises by 1%, it can create an investment return of nearly 20% (18000 points) × 1% × 200 yuan) ÷ 184000 yuan ≈ 19.6%). On the contrary, if investors see a bad market, they can also short (sell) the Taiwan index period and obtain the same return on investment.
Although the characteristic of "small for big" of futures can make many investors earn a lot of money, there are still examples of losing money from time to time, because high leverage and high profit may also face greater losses, and futures contracts have maturity problems (for example, the three-month weighted futures index will expire after settlement on the third Wednesday of March), unlike existing stocks, which can be held for a long time, Therefore, when operating futures, it is not recommended to use long-term basic analysis or longer-term technical indicators as the basis for judgment. As long as the market is not as good as expected, we should carry out stop loss with the mentality of "fast, hard and accurate" in order to maintain profitability.
In addition, futures are traded on margin. If the market is misjudged and the loss is not stopped immediately, the margin may be recovered or even forced to break. Therefore, it is recommended to prepare 2-3 times of margin or select a small futures index with the same subject matter before operating one mouthful of futures. For example, the contract value of the small Taiwan index is equivalent to 1 / 4 of the period of the Taiwan Index (1.50 yuan), and its margin is also reduced to 46000 yuan, which will make the investment operation more flexible in the case of abundant funds.
If investors are not willing to take risks and gamble unilaterally, they can also consider strong weak spread trading. The most common is "electronic and financial spread trading". For example, if foreign investors continue to buy electronic stocks and the electronic index erupts upward, but the financial index remains chaotic, we can consider making multiple electronic futures and short financial futures at the same time. As long as the price difference between the two is enlarged (the rise in the electronic period is greater than that in the financial period), we can earn the price difference income.
In addition, if investors have held a considerable stock position and hope to hold it for a long time, they can also use futures as a hedging tool. For example, when the weighted index is near 18500 points, an investor holds 10 TSMC shares with a market value of about 6.5 million yuan (calculated by the market price of 650 yuan). If the chairman of the Fed will announce the latest interest rate policy and estimate that it may have a short-term impact on the stock market, the investor can empty one Taiwan index period at 18000 points with full guarantee, and the hedging ratio is about 55% ((18000 points) × 200 yuan × 1) ÷ 6500000 yuan ≈ 55%). If the TAIEX and TSMC both fell by 2% as expected on the next trading day, TSMC's current shares lost 130000 yuan (6500000 yuan) × 2% = 130000 yuan), but the short position of futures will make up 72000 yuan (18000 points) × 2% × 200 yuan = 72000 yuan). When this bad event comes to an end, investors can close the short position of futures and continue to maintain the current stock position of TSMC. Similarly, if investors are aware that the stock market will decline for a long time, but due to their status as directors, supervisors, managers and other insiders of the company, they are unable to reduce the company's shares rashly, they can also reduce the risk of asset impairment according to the above futures hedging methods.
The way of futures trading is quite flexible. Friends who are interested are welcome to go to the website of Oriental Securities Corporation (www.osc. Com. TW) or Taiwan Futures Exchange (www.taifex. Com. TW) to further understand relevant commodities and trading rules and grasp profit opportunities.
Note: "mouth" refers to the contract unit for calculating futures, and one mouth refers to a futures contract.
In 2022, the global economy is still full of uncertainty, the global inflation problem is in the ascendant, and major countries have put forward interest rate raising plans. At the beginning of the year, the major global stock markets fell considerably, and it is difficult for Taiwan stocks to stay out of the matter. For investors who have not yet entered the market, it is not easy to choose the best target when the market changes; For investors who have held a considerable position, they are even more trembling and afraid of asset impairment. At this time, "futures" operation is a good investment choice.
Futures is a kind of derivative commodity. Investors can choose to link futures of different commodities according to their needs, such as index futures, stock futures, crude oil futures, etc. without investing a large amount of money, they only need to trade with a certain margin equal to the contract value. Taking the "Taiwan index period", which is currently the hottest trading period in Taiwan Futures Exchange, as an example, assuming that one mouthful of Taiwan index period is made (bought) at 18000 points, the contract value is equivalent to 3.6 million yuan (1 point = 200 yuan, 18000 points) × 200 yuan = 3.6 million yuan). If the one mouthful margin is 184000 yuan (Taiwan Futures Exchange will announce the latest margin from time to time according to the index position), its leverage ratio is nearly 20 times, which is much higher than that of current shares or credit trading.
For investors who are unwilling to hold stocks for a long time or consider it difficult to choose stocks, and intend to adopt "choose the market but not the stock", it is suggested to use the analysis methods such as moving average, KD or linear to judge the entry and exit timing of the Taiwan index period. Taking the above 18500 point Taiwan index period as an example, if one more Taiwan index is made, when the index rises by 1%, it can create an investment return of nearly 20% (18000 points) × 1% × 200 yuan) ÷ 184000 yuan ≈ 19.6%). On the contrary, if investors see a bad market, they can also short (sell) the Taiwan index period and obtain the same return on investment.
Although the characteristic of "small for big" of futures can make many investors earn a lot of money, there are still examples of losing money from time to time, because high leverage and high profit may also face greater losses, and futures contracts have maturity problems (for example, the three-month weighted futures index will expire after settlement on the third Wednesday of March), unlike existing stocks, which can be held for a long time, Therefore, when operating futures, it is not recommended to use long-term basic analysis or longer-term technical indicators as the basis for judgment. As long as the market is not as good as expected, we should carry out stop loss with the mentality of "fast, hard and accurate" in order to maintain profitability.
In addition, futures are traded on margin. If the market is misjudged and the loss is not stopped immediately, the margin may be recovered or even forced to break. Therefore, it is recommended to prepare 2-3 times of margin or select a small futures index with the same subject matter before operating one mouthful of futures. For example, the contract value of the small Taiwan index is equivalent to 1 / 4 of the period of the Taiwan Index (1.50 yuan), and its margin is also reduced to 46000 yuan, which will make the investment operation more flexible in the case of abundant funds.
If investors are not willing to take risks and gamble unilaterally, they can also consider strong weak spread trading. The most common is "electronic and financial spread trading". For example, if foreign investors continue to buy electronic stocks and the electronic index erupts upward, but the financial index remains chaotic, we can consider making multiple electronic futures and short financial futures at the same time. As long as the price difference between the two is enlarged (the rise in the electronic period is greater than that in the financial period), we can earn the price difference income.
In addition, if investors have held a considerable stock position and hope to hold it for a long time, they can also use futures as a hedging tool. For example, when the weighted index is near 18500 points, an investor holds 10 TSMC shares with a market value of about 6.5 million yuan (calculated by the market price of 650 yuan). If the chairman of the Fed will announce the latest interest rate policy and estimate that it may have a short-term impact on the stock market, the investor can empty one Taiwan index period at 18000 points with full guarantee, and the hedging ratio is about 55% ((18000 points) × 200 yuan × 1) ÷ 6500000 yuan ≈ 55%). If the TAIEX and TSMC both fell by 2% as expected on the next trading day, TSMC's current shares lost 130000 yuan (6500000 yuan) × 2% = 130000 yuan), but the short position of futures will make up 72000 yuan (18000 points) × 2% × 200 yuan = 72000 yuan). When this bad event comes to an end, investors can close the short position of futures and continue to maintain the current stock position of TSMC. Similarly, if investors are aware that the stock market will decline for a long time, but due to their status as directors, supervisors, managers and other insiders of the company, they are unable to reduce the company's shares rashly, they can also reduce the risk of asset impairment according to the above futures hedging methods.
The way of futures trading is quite flexible. Friends who are interested are welcome to go to the website of Oriental Securities Corporation (www.osc. Com. TW) or Taiwan Futures Exchange (www.taifex. Com. TW) to further understand relevant commodities and trading rules and grasp profit opportunities.
Note: "mouth" refers to the contract unit for calculating futures, and one mouth refers to a futures contract.
